Would you queue for an iPhone?

With the iPhone forecast to hit the UK in January its probably going to be pretty cold for anybody desperate enough to want to queue up for an iPhone. Several people in New York were already queuing 100 hours early as analysts were announcing that the iPhone has hit Palm sales hard before it is even launched.

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Just when you thought that the iPhone was going to remain on AT&T lockdown, you could be in for a very big surprise: T-Mobile could be the next big carrier to get picked up by the iPhone train, and it just might be announced tomorrow, on the day of (AT&T) independence.

If you're a resident of Germany, that is. German site the Rheinische Post on good authority that T-mobile will announce an exclusivity deal with Apple to sell the iPhone Germany-wide.

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Many analysts believe that Vodaphone would win the affections of Apple to retail the iPhone, but that was strictly in relation to Europe as a whole; clearly Apple  likes doing things their own way, so a union with T-Mobile seems like a likely possibility.

What could this mean for the US market? Could the iPhone be channeled to the US from Germany for US-based T-mobile users? The iPhone mania continues…

Initial sales of the iPhone will be modest, but sales will accelerate once the the price of the iPhone starts to hit the "sweet spot of the mobile phone market", according to analyst Charles Wolf of Needham & Co in a note to investors.

One day we might all be able to afford an iPhone

Wolf predicts that the cost of the iPhone will decline at about 20% per annum due to lower component costs and increasing carrier subsidies.

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He believes that US distributor will initially subsidize the iPhone to the the tune of US$100, and that this this rise by US$5 per annum to US$150 in 2016. As a result, he expects that the price of the iPhone will eventually be around US$75 by 2016, and that as Apple improves the functionality of the iPhone users will use more data services and pay higher access fees (so, cheaper phone, but more usage charges).

The iPhone will go on sale in June for US$499. The initial sales target is to sell 1 million phones within a year.

Needham & Co has raised the target price of Apple shares from US$115 to $135.

”We’re forecasting sales of 135 million iPhones in 2016, equivalent to a seven percent market share," wrote Wolf. 

To put this in perspective, with a market share of 30%, Nokia’s sold over 300 million mobile phones in 2006.